One month ago, in my post summarizing the failure of Mayor Bloomberg’s soda ban — New York Judge’s decision to strike down the soda ban is basically a medical miracle — I sort of meandered my way to the hilarious punchline in many more words than were strictly necessary to get there.
So it was no surprise when the first response to that post was, “That was a long read to get to the punchline.” A long read, indeed. And by design, too.
As it turns out, those words were not wasted, for they served a dual purpose: first, to drag Jon Stewart into the post (this was easy because he was a vocal opponent of the soda ban), and second, to record a prediction regarding his behavior two weeks into the future. Specifically, allow me to draw to your attention the following paragraph, originally published (seemingly unnecessarily) in the Bloomberg post on March 11:
Coincidentally, Stewart’s vacation will return him to television just in time for more Passover jokes. It’s always a surprise when it happens every year.
It’s always nice to check back in on predictions and see how you’re doing, because if you keep making predictions and they keep turning out wrong, you should probably stop making them. Conversely, if you keep making predictions and they keep turning out right, you should definitely keep going, so that leaves me and Nate Silver.
And so it was no surprise that upon his return March 25 (precisely two weeks to the day after my prognostication), it took Stewart 52 seconds (including the intro music) to prove me right:
Let’s begin tonight there with a quick shoutout to the mishpacha. Happy Passover, everybody. I know you’re probably settling in right now for the traditional Passover bacon egg and cheese croissan’wich. [Pause for hysterical laughter.] It’s been a while since I ran a proper seder, so I don’t really…
J-Stew then went on to make some Israel and matzah-bearing robot jokes involving Obama. In his defense, this was sort of irresistible:
Granted, I’m cherry-picking a single salient prediction, which implies a whole set of problems with selection bias, but have no fear: I’m not done. For my next act, I predict that over the next week Stewart will invoke Star Wars at least once. And I will in no way make this paragraph disappear if I turn out to be wrong.
(But I won’t be.)
And yes, I am way behind on my television. Do not ruin Mad Men for me.